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diarrheaworldstarhiphop · 6 years ago

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With the Syrian civil war looking like it's winding down, what's your geopolitical wishlist for how the region shakes out? Any particularly interesting roads things could have gone down earlier in the conflict, that didn't pan out?

Idlib is still a big ???? especially with trump withdrawing and HTS completely ravaging the turkish backed NFL and other lesser salafi groups, which opens up the area to Syrian attack because HTS isn’t protected by turkey

And on that note, there is a huuuuuUUUuuUUUge ????? with the future of rojava because… well. independence isnt likely and the syrian government AND the turkish government is keen on taking what the Kurdish SDF claims.

The syria story is not done yet and thats really all i can see for the next few year, consolidation or further conflagration in Syria and Iraq.

Besides that, of course, is the continued shitmess in Yemen.

Otherwise, things may heat up between Armenia and the Azeris.. annnnd uh. Short of a global economic crisis, things seem like the status quo.

>Any particularly interesting roads things could have gone down earlier in the conflict, that didn’t pan out?

Well, of course, the primary what-if:

Alt-history of the immediate success of the rebels.

This would require more of the army had defected than what had. Had they won in holding and knocking out Assad-loyalist urban centres in those critical first 2 years, a number of critical things would occur:

Upon the blitzkrieg of ISIS arising out of Syria, into Iraq and back in again, much more of the whole of that country would’ve been swept by ISIS. Aside from the formation of an embattled and would-be victorious, urban rebellion and the establishment of a transitional rebel government. Assad wouldn’t be totally knocked out, but he would flee Damascus to the coast where a remnant bloc would resist the rebellion. Disparate loyalist holdouts in the south would resist rebel control as well as Republican Guard and SAA dug-in defenses of neighbourhoods in central Damascus itself, but power and control over the majority of the population would go over to the rebels while the so-called regime would retreat to Latakia before the Russians intervened to protect their naval investment at Tartus and it’s ally. Hezbollah would mount a defense of the Anti-Lebanon Mountains and push back with remaining SAA down into the foothills north of Damascus where they would establish a toehold of the rural regions. Any hope for a future as we now see it, with Loyalist reconquest of most of Syria, would cease to exist or be extremely limited, to which i will get to later.

Provided the explosive expansion of ISIS, the Kurds wouldve completely collapsed in northern Syria and be obliterated against the turkish border as the turks originally wanted and pushed back behind Qamishli and Afrin, where compressed against allies in Iraq and US support, halt a retreat and establish a line of control. ISIS would be preoccupied with combat in urban centres in western syria and central Iraq and would mount little more than defensive lines here in north eastern syria.

ISIS would have really emerged even stronger than they did in this timeline. They would’ve swallowed more of al Nusra, without the daring loyalist grasp on Aleppo as a buffer, and flown into the eastern half of the city, smashing against the rebel siege of Aleppo’s western half, turning it into a four way death match. Nothing of Aleppo would come out without total ruin. Similarly, without government buffer around Homs, Hama or Damascus, ISIS would proceed to take more of the critical populated core of the country, running north south from Aleppo to Damascus. Palmyra and numerous other ancient sites would experience broader destruction and looting. It would be an archaeological catastrophe. The genocide against minority groups would continue. Because of the enormous strength of ISIS, behind the frontline, more religious brigades and factions would splinter or declare loyalty for ISIS, turning a would-be stalemate into a situation where rebel forces would begin giving on the fronts to it’s west and east. Free Syria would begin a gradual decline and loss of it’s urban centres to ISIS.

Russia, having entered even sooner out of urgency of the sitaution yet with no point in propping up the collapsing Assad government and it’s maintenance across all of Syria, would attempt to bolster the remnant successor state west of the nusayriyah mountains. At some point, it would begin to assist in pushing out past the Orontes River in attempt to capture idlib (the city), Hama and Homs where rebels would be extremely dug in against ISIS. Outside of this band, there would be an insanely vicious and violent effort to hold Damascus and Aleppo. Both would likely be lost, except Damascus would hold out the longest, if not actually reach a stalemate.

This is so because the SAA, after restructuring and the establishment of the Tiger Forces, would send General Zahreddine to mount the Republican Guard defense of central Damascus as Deir Ezzor would have already been lost to ISIS by this point. With this, Tiger forces would join the Hezbollah descent from the mountains to try and break the siege of Damascus as a priority while the rest of the SAA slowly push back against Free Syria once the FSA is beset by ISIS. If the SAA and loyalists are or were to have any success, it would be the stabilization of the nusayriyah front and, long shot, the breaking of the siege of Damascus. This feat would be a crucial priority for the loyalist faction for symbolic as well as administrative reasons.

So here’s my map of uh, i guess 2015/2016 Syria in this invented timeline

Because this would be the Zenith of ISIS power inspite of it’s strong show.

Why? Because the west would be EXTREMELY invested in protecting the fragile, newly established Free Syria as well as motivated by the threat ISIS means in this timeline, as it will control the majority of Syria and a sizeable portion of Iraq. The response by the West would likely be more than the waffling we saw, because since ISIS swallowed more of the salafist assets of the FSA and the FSA itself would be more than a simple rebellion but the primary power-broker in the region.

The FSA becomes the primary ally of the western push against ISIS (rather than focus turning to the Kurds) and after a somewhat longer period of time, we may arrive at what we have here:

Except, perhaps more FSA would go thru Turkish territory east of the Euphrates, but I think Turkey wouldn’t have had as big a role as it did if the YPG weren’t totally diminished in Syria. So, aside from a resurgence in the north east and the Kobani push, the FSA would probably outpace the kurds in capturing ISIS territory.

And outpace them they would have, as unlike this timeline, there would be declared and enthusiastic US support on the ground by 2017, because the United States would be EXTREMELY invested in preventing Loyalist Syria from retaking it’s urban centres.

Just like what the USA did in blowing the shit out of Russian mercenaries east of Deir Ezzor in our timeline, they would give the SAME treatment to the Loyalists Once Trump takes office. If the Loyalists are lucky, they will have broken the siege of Damascus but little more besides, as Syrian army strength is severely lacking in manpower as more had defected early in the war.

Russia, not as invested in their ally as they were in this timeline, would likely be less liberal with their bombing campaigns anyway, and really wind it down once the USA fully commits to Free Syria. Russia would be extremely loud in it’s complaints and whining over it’s inability to act here, but this wouldn’t last forever.

Now. the above map isn’t static, but rather a glance at affairs at the moment of total defeat of ISIS around this time or a couple years into the future.

After this, it’s ENTIRELY likely for “Free Syria” to fragment much as the Triumphant Libyan successor state had. In spite of it’s valour, the Free Syrian army is little more than various brigades and ideological allies of convenience.

al Nusra would still be present. In fact, they would have participated and secured alot more territory than Idlib. This would be extremely an issue, and perhaps, an avenue for the loyalist to retake Syrian lands in idlib and elsewise, depending on whos a closer ally of the west or not.

What’s more, ISIS cells would just go underground as they had in our timeline and would actually intensify their revolt around the already weak consolidation efforts of the FSA. A Free Syria won’t last. It will be a clusterfuck that I can’t even begin to anticipate because of the nature of all the ideologies and brigades. This Free Syria would certainly become a failed state. What’s more, ISIS would reemerge.

In light of this, i probably overestimate the capabilities of the “free” rebels in leading the charge against ISIS.

but whatever, i spent waaaay too much time thinking on and writing about this, so im just gonna go ahead and post it without spell checking or grammar or whatever lol

#effortpost #geopolitics #syria #syrian civil war #althistory #alt history

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memecucker · 7 years ago

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as a history oriented person how do you feel about "alt history" fiction that explores ideas like "what if these bad guys had won this war" and the problematization of such fiction (like that tv show about the confederates or whatever)?

it could be interesting if done right.. like alternate history can be broken into “tries to be realistic” and “doesn’t care” segments (like “hard” and “soft” scifi) eg; “What if Napoleon made alternate decisions during the Siege of Acre how would this have effected the rest of the Oriental Campaign?” vs “What if the Roman Empire never fell and also it became steampunk?”

“What if the Confederacy won?” and “What if Nazi Germany won?” are two of the most popular genres of alternative history fiction and truth be told while they might seem like the lean towards the former theyre usually more ‘conceptual’ and thus closer to the latter. Eg; a lot of WW2 stuff involves Axis occupation of the United States and like yeah history can take wild turns but suffice it to say that if Germany and Japan scored “perfect victories” (somehow) neither wouldve even been interested in occupying large parts of the mainland US because both countries wouldve increased the amount of territory and population they had to administer by several times and they wouldnt have even wanted to complicate it further by throwing America into the mix. And they also dont try to really closely examine how an occupation wouldve “realistically” functioned by analyzing how collaborationist governments worked. Thus these kinds of stories are more conceptual and about expressing American attitudes and expressing a certain anxiety of “What if we could be effected by a ‘war at home’ just as much as the rest of the world?” (”Soviet invasion” fiction is somewhat similar and while it’s had some popular tv shows and video games it hasnt been written about on the same scale). Confederate victory fiction (assuming the Confederates are portrayed as bad guys which uh isnt always the case) is often similar.

It’s interesting how oftentimes these kinds of fiction (especially “we are occupied” sort) express both an anxiety of America (usually America, though Britiain had also been a popular subject) being subjected to the same terrors of occupation that is seen elsewhere but also tend to have something of a nationalistic undertone in that there is typically a “resistance” which is oftentimes mainly grassroot and is usually surprisingly successful (even if ‘final victory’ isn’t witnessed the “American people” usually end up performing better than the actual military for some reason). At least with WW2 anyway

#Anonymous

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patriotsnet · 3 years ago

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How Many Seats Do Republicans Hold In Congress

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/how-many-seats-do-republicans-hold-in-congress/

How Many Seats Do Republicans Hold In Congress

Republicans Secure Half Of Total Us Senate Seats

WASHINGTON – U.S. Republican Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska won reelection Wednesday, assuring Republicans of at least 50 seats in the 100-member Senate for the next two years, while leaving control of the chamber uncertain until two runoff elections are held in Georgia in early January.

After slow vote-counting in the northwestern-most state of the U.S. after the November 3 election, news media concluded that Sullivan had an insurmountable lead over Al Gross, an orthopedic surgeon who ran as an independent candidate with Democratic support. The contest was called with Sullivan, a conservative, ahead by 20 percentage points.

With Republicans assured of at least half the Senate seats, attention now turns to the two January 5 runoff elections in the southern state of Georgia.

Two conservative Republican lawmakers Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler now hold the two seats, but both failed in separate contests last week to win a majority, forcing them into the runoffs.

Perdue faces Democrat Jon Ossoff, an investigative journalist who narrowly lost a 2017 race for a seat in the House of Representatives before trying to oust Perdue from the Senate seat he has held since 2015.

Loeffler, who was appointed to her Senate seat in early 2020, is facing Raphael Warnock, a progressive Democrat who is senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta.

Who Are The Winners And Losers

Maine Democrats had high hopes of unseating Susan Collins, the 67-year-old moderate Republican who had been trailing her Democrat rival in the polls for months.

But Sara Gideon, 48, conceded in a call to Ms Collins on Wednesday afternoon.

So far, Democrats have managed a net gain of one seat in the Senate election.

Democratic former governor John Hickenlooper won a key Colorado seat from the Republican incumbent Cory Gardner.

Mr Hickenlooper, who stood for the Democratic nomination for president, was governor of Colorado for two terms from 2011 until last year. His rival was considered particularly vulnerable because of his allegiance to President Trump.

In Arizona, former astronaut Mark Kelly defeated Republican incumbent and former fighter pilot Martha McSally. Mr Kelly earlier said he was “confident that when the votes are counted, we’re going to be successful in this mission”.

However, Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Trump ally Lindsey Graham have both been re-elected in their seats of Kentucky and South Carolina respectively.

And in Alabama, Republican candidate Tommy Tuberville took a seat from the Democratic incumbent Doug Jones.

Democrats Path To Senate Control Narrows As Republicans Hold Onto Critical Seats

Democrats path to seizing the Senate continued to narrow Wednesday as Republicans held onto a cluster of seats in critical states and the two parties continued to fight to control the upper chamber of Congress in close contests across the country.

Democrats won a crucial seat in Arizonaearly Wednesday, with Mark Kelly, a former astronaut, defeating Senator Martha McSally, after former Gov. John Hickenlooper defeated Senator Cory Gardner Tuesday night in the high-profile fight for Colorados Senate seat. Those victories were essential to Democrats push to take the Senate majority.

In Georgia, the Rev. Dr. Raphael G. Warnock, a Democrat, advanced to a runoff election against Senator Kelly Loeffler, the Republican incumbent. The other race in the state, between Jon Ossoff, the Democratic challenger, and Senator David Perdue, a Republican, was too close to call.

And early returns showed Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, with a lead over his Democratic challenger, Cal Cunningham, in a seat that strategists in both parties identified as a possible tipping point.

There were still several crucial Senate races that were not yet called that Democrats hope to win, including Maine,and Democrats remained bullish on their chances in Georgia.

The 2018 Congressional Retirement Tracker

Here’s a running list of all the lawmakers calling it quits this year.

If you want to see a political wave forming a year before an election, watch the retirements.

Theyre often a leading indicator for which direction a party is headed, and so far, 2018 is shaping up ominously for Republicans, who will be defending 40 open House seats this fall compared with the Democrats 20. By far the biggest and most consequential retirement announcement came in early April, as Speaker Paul Ryan told his colleagues he would not seek reelection to his House seat.

Far more Republicans are leaving Congress voluntarily than Democrats, putting the partys control of the chamber in jeopardy. Several veteran Republican lawmakers in competitive districts are calling it quits, depriving the GOP of the advantage of incumbency in races that could determine control of the House in 2019.

Mcconnell Not Troubled At All By Trump’s Suggestion Of Supreme Court Challenge

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell defended Mr. Trump for falsely claiming that he won reelection, although he acknowledged that the presidential race had not yet been decided.

“It’s not unusual for people to claim they have won the election. I can think of that happening on numerous occasions,” McConnell told reporters in Kentucky. “But, claiming to win the election is different from finishing the counting.”

“Claiming to win the election is different from finishing the counting,” Mitch McConnell says, adding that Americans “should not be shocked” that Democrats and Republicans are both lawyering up for the close races https://t.co/fxHKy8hSEp

CBS News November 4, 2020

He also said he was “not troubled at all” by the president suggesting that the outcome of the election might be determined by the Supreme Court. The president cannot unilaterally bring a case to the Supreme Court, what it’s unclear what case the Trump campaign would have if it challenged the counting of legally cast absentee ballots.

McConnell, who won his own closely watched reelection race on Tuesday evening, expressed measured confidence about Republicans maintaining their majority in the Senate. He said he believed there is a “chance we will know by the end of the day” if Republicans won races in states like Georgia and North Carolina.

Could Flip Under The Right Conditions: Michigan Iowa Montana Kansas And Georgia Special Election

Michigan: Michigan is one of the most hotly contested states in the presidential race, and the reelection bid of Sen. Gary Peters will get caught up in that. Democrats say the fact that the coronavirus has hit Michigan hard makes it more likely Biden can win this state, which was crucial to Trumps 2016 victory. In the Senate race, Republicans have made a big deal out of John James, an Iraq War veteran and conservative media darling. James has outraised Peters for three straight quarters and is close to having as much money as Peters in the bank. Democrats argue Republicans are too bullish on a candidate who also lost a Senate race against a Democrat in 2018. Polls have shown this race close between the two.

Montana: Can a popular Democratic governor who won in Trump country unseat a sitting Republican senator? Term-limited Gov. Steve Bullock , a former 2020 presidential candidate, is running against Sen. Steve Daines . Bullock is the Democrat with the best shot, given hes won three times statewide, including when Trump swept the state in 2016. And in 2018, Sen. Jon Tester won a tough reelection fight. But can Bullock unseat a sitting Republican senator in a state that some strategists estimate could vote for Trump by as many as 20 points?

Its Not All Bad News For Democrats

While it was unquestionably a good night for Republicans, Democrats still held onto most of the seats they won in 2018 and will continue to be the majority party in the House. Thats in part because they retained most of the suburban districts they picked up in 2018.

Of the 233 seats that Democrats held coming into the election, 186 of them were in districts that were predominantly or partly suburban in nature, according to density categorizations by Bloombergs CityLab. Thus far, Democrats have lost seven of those seats, but they captured one GOP-held suburban seat around Atlanta. And thanks to redistricting, theyve also won two formerly Republican seats around Greensboro and Raleigh in North Carolina, which reflect the partys strength in more populous areas.

Because of their relative success in the suburbs, Democrats kept many seats in places President Trump won in 2016. Coming into the election, Democrats held 30 seats in districts Trump carried in 2016, and they wouldve lost their majority if theyd lost more than half of them . But theyve won 18 of them so far and picked up one from the GOP . In fact, more than half of Republicans gains have come in seats representing places that Trump won by a pretty sizable margin in 2016. Well have to wait a bit before data can tell us how congressional districts voted in 2020, but for now it seems many Republican gains were made by picking off the lowest-hanging fruit.

An Incoming Class Of History

Several of the newly elected state representatives are making history.

The Republican Madison Cawthorn, 25, who beat the Democrat Moe Davis to represent North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, will become the youngest member of Congress in modern history.

The Democrat Cori Bush is set to become the first Black congresswoman from Missouri after winning in the state’s 1st Congressional District.

The Democrats Mondaire Jones and Ritchie Torres will also be the first openly gay Black men to serve in Congress, after winning in New York’s 17th and 15th districts respectively.

And nine out of the eleven Republicans who have so far unseated incumbent Democrats are women wins that will drastically expand the representation of women and especially of women of color in the House Republican caucus.

Currently, there are just 13 voting female Republican representatives in the House and 11 female Republican incumbents who ran for reelection in 2020.

Collins Says Gideon Called To Concede

Senator Susan Collins of Maine told supporters on Wednesday that her Democratic opponent, Sara Gideon, had called her to concede the race. Without taking Collins’ seat, Democrats have little change of claiming the Senate majority.

“I have news for everyone. I just received a very gracious call from Sara Gideon conceding the race,” Collins told supporters on Wednesday afternoon.

Collins, one of the more moderate members of Senate, was considered particularly vulnerable this year. If she had received under 50% of the vote, the race would have proceeded to a runoff, under Maine’s system of ranked-choice voting.

Gideon significantly outraised Collins, and hit the senator repeatedly for voting to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

Republicans Are Well Positioned To Take The House In 2022

Although we dont yet know the winners of some House races, we can already look ahead to the 2022 midterms and see a fairly straightforward path for the GOP to capture the House. Midterm elections historically go well for the party thats not in the White House, and the out-of-power party is especially likely to do well in the House, since every seat is up for election .

Since the end of World War II, the presidential party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections, as the chart below shows. No matter how many seats Democrats end up with after 2020s election at this point, they will probably end up somewhere in the low 220s a loss of that magnitude would easily be enough for Republicans to retake the House.

The recent history of midterms in a Democratic presidents first term seems especially promising for the GOP, too. Following Bill Clintons election in 1992, Democrats lost more than 50 seats in 1994, and after Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, Democrats lost more than 60 seats.

If Democrats had added five to 10 seats this year, they could have survived a 20-seat loss in the midterms. Instead, Republicans will probably need to win fewer than 10 seats to gain a slender majority in 2022.

The Number Of People Each House Member Represents Will Change

The number of residents represented by each House member will mostly grow in 2022, though it will decrease per representative in some states.

Since Montana gained a representative, its two House members will now split the state’s population currently represented by Rep. Matt Rosendale, a Republican. The addition of another House seat means Montana’s House members will represent the least amount of people compared to House members in other states.

Delaware’s sole House district, currently held by Democratic Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, will be the largest in terms of population.

Theres Never Been A Better Time For Civic Engagement

Youve cast your vote. Now what? Join 10 million other Americans using GovTrack to learn about and contact your representative and senators and track what Congress is doing each day.

And starting in 2019 well be tracking Congresss oversight investigations of the executive branch.

Youre more than a vote, so support GovTrack today with a tip of any amount:

Or keep using GovTrack for free! Our public interest mission means we will never put our service behind a paywall.

New Yorkers Become First Black And Openly Gay Members Of Congress

Tuesday night will be historic in part because of the diversity of candidates elected to the House. Democrats Ritchie Torres and Mondaire Jones, both of New York, are the first Black and openly gay members of Congress.

Meanwhile, Republican Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina is leading in North Carolina’s 11th district, a safe Republican seat. Cawthorn, 25, won the June primary against a Trump-backed candidate for the seat vacated by White House chief of staff Mark Meadows . He has come under fire for visiting Hitler’s retreat and for his campaign launching a website which included a racist broadside against his Democratic opponent.

Maine Senate Race A Toss

With polls closing at 8 p.m., the hotly contested Maine Senate race remains a toss-up. Senator Susan Collins, running for her fifth term, is considered one of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate, but she is facing considerable skepticism from Democrats and independents who previously supported her. State Speaker of the House Sara Gideon is the Democratic candidate, and has posted record fundraising.

CBS News projects that Democratic Senator Chris Coons of Delaware and Democratic Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts have both won reelection. Republican Senator Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma also won reelection.

The Alabama Senate race is leaning toward Republican Tommy Tuberville, who is taking on incumbent Senator Doug Jones, the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate.

The Tennessee Senate race is also leaning Republican. The Mississippi Senate race is likely Republican. The Senate races in New Hampshire, Illinois, and Rhode Island are lean Democratic, and New Jersey is likely Democratic.

Cori Bush Becomes Missouri’s First Black Congresswoman Cbs News Projects

Cori Bush, a progressive Democrat and activist, has become Missouri’s first Black congresswoman, according to CBS News projections. With 88% of votes reported, Bush is leading Republican Anthony Rogers 78.9% to 19% to represent the state’s first congressional district, which includes St. Louis and Ferguson.

Bush, 44, claimed victory on Tuesday, promising to bring change to the district. “As the first Black woman and also the first nurse and single mother to have the honor to represent Missouri in the United States Congress, let me say this: To the Black women, the Black girls, the nurses, the essential workers, the single mothers, this is our moment,” she told supporters in St. Louis.

More stories from theweek.com

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What Is The New Balance Of Power In The House

House Democrats held onto their majority but lost seats to Republican challengers.

More than a dozen incumbent Democrats lost re-election bids, despite earlier projections they could gain up to 15 seats.

Just How Bad Was The 2018 Election For House Republicans

On Thursday, Democrat Jared Golden beat Maine Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin, marking the 33rd seat pickup for Democrats in the 2018 election.

So did he? As compared to history?

Not really, is the answer.

But more broadly, the 33 seat loss by Republicans in 2018 places this election firmly in the upper echelon of House-seat losses by a presidents party in modern midterms.

Read Thursdays full edition of The Point newsletter, and sign up to get future editions delivered to your inbox.

I Do Not Buy That A Social Media Ban Hurts Trumps 2024 Aspirations: Nate Silver

What do we make of that playbook headed into 2022? Likewise, as the party in charge, what are Democrats planning for?

With that being said, the GOPs strategies could still gin up turnout among its base, in particular, but its hard to separate that from general dissatisfaction with Biden.

Th Congress 2007 And 2008

University of California political scientist G. William Domhoff wrote:

Said Bush after the results became clear in 2006:

White House: Republican

House: Democrats held 233 seats, Republicans held 202 seats

Senate: Democrats held 49 seats, Republicans held 49 seats; there was one independent and one independent Democrat

About The House Of Representatives

The United States is also divided into 435 congressional districts with a population of about 750,000 each. Each district elects a representative to the House of Representatives for a two-year term.

As in the Senate, the day-to-day activities of the House are controlled by the majority party. Here is a count of representatives by party:

How Are The Results Reported

Estimates for the total vote in each state are also provided by AP. The numbers update throughout election night, as more data on voter turnout becomes available.

Th Congress 2015 And 2016

Said Obama after the results became clear:

White House: Democrat

House: Republicans held 246 seats, Democrats held 187 seats; there were two vacancies.

Senate: Republicans held 54 seats, Democrats held 44 seats; there were two independents, both of whom caucused with the Democrats.

source https://www.patriotsnet.com/how-many-seats-do-republicans-hold-in-congress/

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unproduciblesmackdown · 7 years ago

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either it was a case of a) ignoring obvious context clues or b) forgetting outright statements in the books or most likely c) both, but i didnt Get that lucius malfoy had been the like head death eater pre-voldemorts quasideath. it makes sense obviously but it makes everything even more ironic? poetic? whatever that basically voldemorts handling of the malfoys was one of the most dumbassed things he did, both by complete accident/coincidence/luck and by voldemorts own crappy choices which make it infinitely easier to off him like i hadnt really thought about it in an organized fashion before knowing that lucius used to be #1 but i guess that just made it more beautiful or something. because its in part all great and heartwarming and stuff that the good choices of good people doing their best does lead to direct successes, but its also great when things that arent supposed to be important or even relevant come into play and small undignified things end up being as crucial as the more grand and dramatic stuff. plus, dumbledore is representing the Man With A Long Con Plan, and he sucks. whereas harry is always just playing by ear and doing all the real work out here anyways it all also makes sense why draco malfoy remains so prominent throughout the series, even in say, book 4, where he truly does nothing impactful save tell harry he sucks and be transfigured into a ferret by a death eater. he's in the top ten characters per mention re: the series as a whole, and even stays in the top twenty chars by mention in dh, where he's hardly even around. i know this from trivia games. and he's like the first hogwarts peer harry meets, right. but the point is despite being introduced as a rival who seems to be heading towards simply being a nuisance, his tangential arc is not only important even when he's only being an annoying dumbass but also voldemort's own bullshit causing his own demise like firstly, it was useful that lucius malfoy was Death Eater Man The First because he essentially raised his child in a cult in an attempt to pretty much clone himself, which sort of worked until like, book 6. which, a fun fact if you overlook these kinds of connect-the-dots clues in the books like i do, means it makes sense why draco made an attempt to befriend harry in the first place and why that attempt was so blindingly crappy: that pre-voldemorts return, former death eaters thought harry potter might turn out to be the next mega evil wizard, so it was probably a lucius-endorsed maneuver, what with it being repeatedly established that lucius's strategy in things is to associate himself with powerful people and try to gain influence and protection that way. but when harry was like fuck off with that, draco realized that harry was just an sjw, even though technically antagonizing hp was not lucius-endorsed. and the cult thing comes into play both in the worst friendship offering of all time and in draco wanting to knock harry down a peg at all times, in that not only was draco brought up on the belief of wide concepts like wizpremacy and blood purity and a voldemort renaissance would be amazing and death eaters are the best, but also the concept that as a pureblood and a malfoy they had an elitism that would be recognized anywhere, so not only should harry have been interested in befriending him and recognizing him as top quality but so should the whole god damn school, neither of which happened, so he takes it all out on harry on account of being jealous and a little shit but maybe that self-appointed rivalry wouldve died down if harry hadn't also been drawn into the pettiness of it all, thank god for it, because it is a) vital to murdering voldemort and b) pretty funny sometimes, when thats the context of the situation, on account of draco's role fluctuating between harmless annoyance to actual threat/antagonist even within the same books. e.g. how in poa, he's sort of indirectly causing real problems via hippogriff executions, but at the same time the part where he shows up and has snape make ron and harry do his potion for him is a little hilarious. i think ron hit him in the face with a crocodile heart in CoS, maybe. potions is where its all happening. but anyways, the point is that harry kind of drags draco along in remaining relevant because theyre both dumb as hell, and immature. like, draco's relevant in the first book because all the little things are more relevant to harry then and he's presumably not happy about once again being hated for no good reason. and in the second one, the trio think draco is the heir of slytherin for a while. he has the buckbeak thing in the third book, in goblet of fire he's really just there in the background being annoying, unhelpful, racist, etc, as per usual but its all so unimportant i barely remember half of what he's even doing in that book. but anyways, like with the other books, despite being outstripped as a real "threat" in harry's world by that point, its still important he's relevant in the fifth book as well, because he's obviously important in the sixth but in a way that started in the fifth book, which means by extension its a way that started in books 1-4 as well because in book 5, even though for once he has some mild direct form of power besides the really powerful yet indirect factor of having a rich dad involved in politics, malfoy still doesnt really manage much. until he manages the fairly major victory of raiding dumbledores army. which didnt turn out to be important since they got out of that tight spot, but it was important because it introduced draco to the room of requirement the 6th book is like, its funny that the reason harry suspected malfoy so much besides seeing a sort of suspicious conversation or two, is mostly just that he's got a grudge against him and also is wondering why draco seems to have gotten a hobby besides annoying him all the time, which is funny because its just accurate. and also relies on their history in all the previous books. but what was really up was that, again, voldemort was ruining everything for himself. on account of deciding to make an example of the malfoys as a way of punishing lucius for totally botching the dept of mysteries thing. like, thats great and all, but it kind of backfires in the whole death-eater-cult thing draco had going on in that he was seeing evidence that being a death eater actually was the worst and everyone was jerks, and that the guy he was modeling himself after was now the lowest amongst them, and voldemorts a dick and his return is actually shitty, and again that they arent seen as The Best for being malfoys, and things arent The Best because voldemorts back, but instead it is bullshit and theyre considered the worst for being malfoys. and the whole Cult Teaching Style really backfires in that sense since when parts of it get disproved to someone the whole thing is now liable to collapse too. and his execution mission was Useful in a load of ways. including that besides the regular voldemort stress there was the stress of malfoy figuring out he wasn't actually up for murder re: katie bell and ron almost dying in the crossfire. which you'd think he mightve thought of before voldemort returned with all his murder agenda, but maybe he really did just assume he'd make a great stone cold killer. presumably there wasnt a lot of thinking shit through about taking on the whole mission in the first place anyways, then the room of requirement is important because he needs it to actually succeed, which apparently none of the masterminds behind the whole thing (voldemort, dumbledore, snape) accounted for. and that whole deal on the astronomy tower just did the important stuff of a) proving to draco that he can't actually kill anyone and b) showing harry that draco disarmed dumbledore, for the whole elder wand business and then the other reason that voldemort inadvertently turned the malfoys against him was that, by sending their son off to die while simultaneously antagonizing them at all times, of course he made the situation such that by the 7th book even bullshit lucius is really mostly interested in their family making it out alive, which as per usual means doing whatever it takes with whoevers on top to do so. total #malfoys, ttly slytherin. but anyways? honestly? there were such infinitely better ways to use the fact that the malfoy family actually gave a shit about each other besides "you did this wrong so i'll kill your kid as punishment." on account of that just gives them reason to resent voldemort, would have left them with a lot less to lose should draco have actually died (did voldemort expect dumbledore to actually kill a 16-yr old who was one of his students or something? he sucks but hes a lot more passive in his negligence towards his student body), it was a waste of draco's potential use on account of he was clearly not only more competent than voldemort expected but also? he had been raised from birth to think voldemort was the best and his rule would be the best and being a death eater would be the best. and voldemort not only threw away a would-be useful death eater to die but also basically disillusioned draco of all his ideas about what life w voldemort around was like. and then theres the fact that, since voldemort knew lucius and narcissa cared enough about draco to suffer at his death, why wouldn't he have instead essentially used draco as a hostage to have their motivation be centered around that rather than gaining or maintaining status. its not like there were that many powerful death eaters at his disposal. i mean, narcissa is probably on the level of the best of them yet her abilities are really never called upon. like, she was ready to kill or die for draco, when she gave draco her wand it meant both she and lucius didnt have a wand at that point but she wasnt fucking around. and voldemort considered draco throwaway anyways and thought the best card he could play was to kill him? when he was that valuable to such powerful people? okay pal, sure. i mean probably he really didnt realize the extent to which the malfoys (particularly narcissa lbr, the saving grace of moms theme) actually cared about draco as their kid and not just like family honor shit or whatever, since thats a theme with him and then of course, besides voldemorts wasted opportunities there, draco's whole suicide-mission-that-actually-worked-out came into play when the trio gets caught by death eaters in dh and brought to his house and draco doesn't narc harry over to voldemort. on account of its fairly established to him by that point that he's not about killing anyone, even if it would moreso redeem his family to turn him in or be kind of anti-voldemort not to. this is useful when a) it means voldemort doesnt show up and murder harry a few times and b) it means harry's also alive to bust out and get some wands from draco. which he would also need for the elder wand business and which he would recognize as a crucial advantage because he'd witnessed draco disarm dumbledore because voldemort was a dumbass and gave him that mission and he could do it via the room of requirement which he found because of antagonizing harry during year 5 because of the longstanding feud he and harry had maintained ever since the hogwarts express ride before year 1 when their interaction stemmed from draco's dad being a major death eater player and then anyways despite kind of getting in harrys way again in the room of requirement which is a whole bit that feels almost nostalgic in that situation, with the battle being elsewhere and the broomsticks and everyone just taking a moment in the hall afterwards to be like jesus christ i need a gatorade. but it was useful in harry saving draco from dying then, which was funny with ron's line about if we die for them i'll kill you, but yknow harrys spontaneous heroics and neither him nor malfoy being interested in the other actually dying or anything. and then them saving malfoy again from some random death eater, which was an even more optional life saving maneuver. technically harry couldve lied i guess, but it was relevant when his life depended on telling narcissa that draco was alive in hogwarts as far as he knew. i dont think he realized why she was asking and what the effects of his answer would be until after he'd actually done so, so i guess its not as though he had the chance to weigh the option of lying anyways. plus, all that spontaneous heroics stuff and harry not being a particularly good liar and the thing that i cant remember if its canon or inferred theory that narcissa is a really good occlumens/legilimens, whereas harry is bullshit at that. but anyways, what was really important there was The Theme, aka that moms keep saving the world via the sake of their kids. and for that to happen in a literary sense draco had to be alive, even though maybe the intent wouldve counted, who knows, whatever anyways and then of course its relevant again when harry doesnt kill voldemort with his own twin wand even though that would be the dramatic and strategic thing to do, but with a wand he happened to snatch on improv of some rando bullshit student in his year who voldemort tried to have killed off because he's a wipe and terrible at everything, which is also how the horcruxes thing played out. and he keeps underestimating everyones mom. and thats how draco despite seeming largely useless for most of the series winds up being so useful he's mentioned in the final confrontation with voldemort right up to the point of harry actually killing voldemort. and its all because of death eaterdom doing itself in and voldemort doing himself in too and because draco and harry happened to have a mutual stubborn pettiness going on, but not so much so that they were going to let the other get killed. what with them being 17 and everyone having some god damn sense, particularly malfoy with his sense-gaining experience of the year prior and the whole not being twelve factor tldr the themes are: harrys spontaneous heroics, voldemorts self-destructive lack of comprehension of Love, your mom, and being a petty shithead and having a few ridiculous happenstantial encounters are whats important

#long post ////#harry potter ⚡️#dunno why lucius's highrankingness made this all seem more relevant but it did #i guess its because voldemort really blew it even more than if it was just some middling death eater rando

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tfw-no-tennis · 4 years ago

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hunty x hunty cont

soooo we watched more! woohoo

we finished the hunter exam arc???? i THNK? lmaoooo at the end of the ep (21 i thiiiiink) we were on, satotz was like BUT THE HUNTER EXAM ISNT EVEN OVER YET or w/e lol aigh??? whats up w/that

anyways a lot happened in the last few eps that we watched....man i shouldve written this earlier but i litrelly havent been online. anyways

so during the hunter exam stage 4...gon is literally perfect (as i always have to say), him reuniting w/leorio and kurapika was rlly sweet :’)

of course he immediately offered to help....goodest boy

and wow that kid has such a powerful nose bvhjksfbjsk he rlly be a gr8 sniffer

ok literally the part where leorio was in the cave and was like GON KURAPIKA DONT COME IN HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and they both full speed sprint into the cave with 0 hesitation.....we love a 0 brain cells family

i love leorio so much he really just b running around w/a switchblade and a breifcase, both of which he barely used during the exam lmao

so bummed that leorio slicing up tht snake happened offscreen. how tf did that even work, he doesnt have a goddamn sword

gon just being able to hold his breath for almost 10 mins makes so much sense somehow...he rlly is one of those shounen protags who is just casually a ridiculous human being and doesnt even fully realize that its weird

that shot of him carrying everyone out of the cave was so sweet

and of course gon vs snakes....hes so perfect....he trusts his friends so much :’)

also random aside but im so glad tonpa is out and idk if i talked abt this in my prev post but i feel like in most shounen he wouldve been like, so inspired by gons shounen protag energy that he wouldve changed his tune and taken the exam genuinely and either passed or declared that hed definitely pass next year - but no, he was awful til the end, this aint that kind of story (yet...?)

have i mentioned that i hate hisoka? cause i hate hisoka. nasty ass crusty clown bitch

what else happened in the phase 4 stuff. oh yeah killua clowned on those triplet dudes (and hanzo lowkey), which was great

ok the opening not having changed this whole time is so funny. imagine if it never changed and its still basic and cheery when everything gets crazy and dark lmao

ooh my god i forgot to mention this last time but i feel like gons backpack is full of hair gel and hair gel ONLY, he only brought hair gel and his fishing rod. this is canon ty

oh gosh when killua and gon reunited at the end of the 4th stage....OOOUGH so precious...those two are so cute god. i want a compilation of their cute moments together i hope that exists

GOD OH FUCK the scene on the airship where kurapika and gon talked bc gon was clearly bothered by something (what happened w/hisoka obvs. i hate that clown bitch) and OUGHHHH OH GOD gon crying LICHRALLY killed me oh man :( i was literally just chanting NO NO NO!!!! at the TV cause seeing tiny baby boy upset was so sad....and ik it gets soooo much worse oh god i cant handle it

the whole convo was really good and really anti-shounen (once again...feel like thatll be a theme lmao) bc like, it was a healthy convo where gon talked honestly abt his feelings instead of using some shounen protag BS phrases like ‘it doesnt matter!!! ill be stronger next time!!!’ or w/e....and kurapika is a such a good parent oh man :(

again, cant get over how genuine and uncomplicated the teamup of the main 4 characters has been....literally no ‘we’re competing and only teaming up for convenience/the hunter exam comes before our friendship’ nonsense

did anything else happen on the airship. ider

anyways. can i talk abt illumi now. CAN I TALK ABT ILLUMI NOW. H8 THAT BITCH.

ok wait back up theres other stuff

the interviews w/the candidates was interesting! i love how the old dude was SO not picking up what Creepy Hisoka was putting down lmaooooo

that poor old guy lmao he seems like a decent dude, he was like oh i dont wanna fight gon and killua cause theyre kids,....RIP u red shirt legend

the bracket setup was so interesting oh man....very funky and creative. and then it wasnt really fully utilized lol, i feel like thats indicative of a bigger patten - hxh so far has been really creative and interesting, and clearly uninterested in setting things up simply to check off boxes on a shounen tropes checklist....i can already see what makes it so great if this keeps up bc daym, so many shounen have their interesting themes drowned out by the overwhelming necessity for the plot to hit certain shounen story beats, smothering otherwise new/fresh ideas and rerouting them back into the same old over-trodden shounen trope territory

on a meta level, i wonder if the author was like, allowed more leniency (’do whatever bro’) bc hed already been successful w/yu yu hakusho. i havent seen/ready yyh so idk how ‘typically shounen’ it is but thats st that im curious about

aaanyways. the tournament starts w/hanzo beating up gon for THREE HOURS STRAIGHT. jesus dude. so yeah obviously leorio and kurapika are the best parents ever and them getting so righteously angry over seeing this happen to gon is so heartwarming and good and also a big big mood

they love their son okay. also that was fucked up. ALSO i find it interesting that thats only the second time we’ve seen kurapikas eyes turn red

i bet that hisoka saw that also and somethign something phantom troupe, see bottom of post in predictions section

seeing gon get beat up like that made my heart hurt :( especially when hanzo broke his arm...oof.

god also i cant believe hanzo is 18 hes literally bald hvbhjafbjs whats w/hxh and making everyone a teen or younger lmao god

also omfg i love that leorio and kurapika are lichreally 19 and already have kids wow thats amazing especially considering their kids are 12. its so funny that theyre such Parents already considering that the age gap is kinda hilariously small, espec bc i thought that they (mostly leorio) were a lot older at first lmao

the fact that gon gets to win that fight against hanzo was a legit shock to me....again, anti-shounen. we’d normally want to see what our protag can do in a fight - espec in a tournament-style arc where the consequences arent as high typically - so we’d want him to go further, which is easy here bc to move on he has to lose, which is easy bc gon is a baby w/no offensive capabilities (that we’ve seen)

god ive talked abt this already but its so fascinating how we havent really had any full-on fights???? espec w/the main 4 characters????? we still barely know what they can do....WE STILL HAVENT BEEN INTRODUCED TO NEN????

ive been spoiled (i guess?) to the existence of nen but thats abt it. what can it do? what is it? fuck if i know lmao. so i could totally see them pulling a ‘we were using nen the whole time’ w/like hisoka or st, OR a ‘YOU were using nen the whole time w/out realizing it’ w/gon

ok anyways. that hanzo fight was rough but also gon is literally the best. he was trying to bargain w/hanzo to figure out a way where they could come to a conclusion that would satisfy them both - despite hanzo clearly outmatching gon in skill, so the effort on hanzo’s part would be pointless and simply for gon’s benefit....basically the entire proposal sound ludicris and insulting to suggest (or st, idk how to phrase it), but since its gon of COURSE he only has the purest of intentions and means it so genuinely that you cant even be mad at him

hanzo just knocking him out lmaoooo and then hes just out for the rest of the tournament???? thats so wild and...whatdya know....un-shounen!

then he wakes up n his lil x-shaped forehead bandage....ough so cute

also the whole convo he and satotz had abt gon’s victory and hunter license and earning/deserving it was so good :’)

also i feel like the show did a good job of humanizing characters like satotz. i legit thought he was a robot or st at first but it feels more like hes just A Guy now,....albeit a weird guy, but thats to be expected. its like, yeah this guy also took the hunter exam at one point, wow.

anways this is already long and i havent even gotten to the killua stuff yet lol so im gonna stop here for now. and introducing a new segment..........the prediction corner! where i dump my speculations/predictions, entirely for my future self’s benefit

PREDICTIONS:

first off as i alluded to above, i think that hisoka has some sort of connection to the phantom troupe (does he know them? maybe not, but he knows where to find them? idk) and when he saw kurapikas red eyes, was able to figure out that whole deal and said st to kurapika during that fight like ‘hey i can help you find the phantom troupe if you want :))))’

i kinda said this earlier but i predict that kurapika might get really wrapped up in revenge and go off the rails a bit. we’ll see, so far that hasnt really happened, but for some reason i kinda think that it will? we’ll see

i (incorrectly) predicted that killua would have known that illumi was there the whole time, considering that he was able to noticing the hunter exam dudes following him in phase 4, etc....but BOY was i wrong about that oof

iiii think that the whole ‘the hunter exam isnt over yet!!!’ stuff will be an opportunity for killua to pass this year still, maybe? idk abt that tho

i have more predictions but i forgot :( also some of them are more relevant to the next few eps ill make a post on

#gotta break up my thoughts somehow #wow these are gonna get so damn long espec if ruth and i end up binging a bunch of eps in a short period lmao #unrelated but god 'this must be the place' was just on shuffle which murdered me and now an emo-ass U2 song came on...bruh #anyways #lj watches hxh #hxh

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tipsoctopus · 6 years ago

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"Brilliant news", "God-send" - These Man Utd fans react to potential UCL boost

According to The Guardian, Neymar is a doubt for PSG’s Champions League clash with Manchester United after sustaining a foot injury during an otherwise routine 2-0 victory over Strasbourg on Wednesday.

The Brazilian, as he often is, was targeted from the first whistle and was subject to a number of nibbles and kicks which ultimately led to his withdrawal an hour into the game, and he was subsequently taken to hospital for tests, as per The Guardian.

Considering that the former Barcelona man has struggled with such injuries previously, the French champions are surely keen to look after their winger and may choose not to force him into action for the tie with the Red Devils in mid-February in what would be a massive boost for the home side.

Neymar has become one third of the most revered and feared front threes in Europe – the 26-year-old, Kylian Mbappe and Edinson Cavani have been on fire this season and recently led their side to a 9-0 victory in the league.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men, meanwhile, have been enjoying similar successes in the domestic competition – the Old Trafford outfit are currently on a six-game unbeaten streak.

Should Neymar be indeed ruled out for the battle on February 12, United might fancy their chances much more. The fans certainly do, as they reacted on Twitter…

It doesn't matter if neymar is fit or not we are going to beat them period #mufc

— Chitown's Finest (@aly_rue) January 24, 2019

Neymar potentially out injured for the home PSG fixture could be a God-send #MUFC

— Jamie Dąbrowiecki (@jdabXO) January 24, 2019

Apparently Neymar got Injured last nite and will be out for up to 6 weeks meaning he'll miss the 1st match against UTD.

Brilliant news if true 😀#MUFC

— Shane Gavin (@Y2Jackson1993) January 24, 2019

#MUFC fans, rejoice for Neymar Jr is likely to miss the Man Utd game!.

— Daniels (@tygadaniels) January 24, 2019

It just keeps getting better for Solskjaer ⁦⁦@ManUtd⁩ … Neymar suffers recurrence of metatarsal injury and could miss PSG’s Champions League last-16 match with United (from @AP) #MUFC https://t.co/6zozLGUXnr

— Steve Douglas (@sdouglas80) January 24, 2019

Neymar faking an injury to escape the great Ashley Young.

— Fosuhene (@theJonathanMUFC) January 24, 2019

Wouldve been pocketed by Mike smalling anyway

— Arno (@NewtonHeath98) January 24, 2019

I wanted to beat a full strength psg!!!!!

— . (@EBUBOSS) January 24, 2019

Which “global superstar” has just been named Man Utd’s worst ever January signing? Find out in the video above…

from FootballFanCast.com http://bit.ly/2S186vq via IFTTT from Blogger http://bit.ly/2MvTejs via IFTTT

#FootballFanCast.com

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trendingnewsb · 7 years ago

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One year on, Donald Trump is still an illegitimate president | Rebecca Solnit

It is unlikely that the presidential election will be overturned, but that is not an argument against the case that it should be

The 2016 US presidential election was so corrupted in so many ways, small and large, that there is no reason to respect its outcome or regard Donald J Trump as the legitimate president of the United States.

Many things warped the process, including massive intervention on many fronts by a hostile foreign power, apparent collusion by Trump and his associates, and disturbing anomalies in the actual voting process and its outcome. Its worth remembering that, and reviewing the evidence.

In South Korea in late 2016, popular uprisings and parliamentary impeachment proceedings forced the corrupt president out of office. In Kenya on 1 September of this year, the supreme court annulled a presidential election because of evidence that the vote had been electronically manipulated and ordered a new election.

There is no domestic precedent for nullifying a presidential election; there is also no previous election like this one in the nature and range of its corruptions and the unanswered questions about its anomalies.

It is unlikely that it will be overturned, but that is not an argument against the case that it should be. Nor is this a case for handing the presidency to Hillary Clinton. Kenyans and South Koreans got new elections. (The order of succession is a grim thought, if it makes Vice-President Pence or Speaker Ryan president, but its fun to note that if Democrats retake the house in the 2018 midterm elections, and prosecutions or other factors remove both Pence and Trump after that event, the country gets handed a Democratic president.)

You cant count the votes that werent cast, and you can make a case that the election was sabotaged without taking them into account. But when you add up the different means of disenfranchisement voter ID laws and illegitimate enforcement of them, the Crosscheck program, voter roll purges, reduction of poling places, gutting the Voting Rights Act you see that millions of poor, student and nonwhite voters were denied one of their basic rights as citizens, along with more than six million disenfranchised because of felony convictions.

That is a huge chunk of the electorate, and had half of them voted, it would have given us a wildly different outcome in fact, it probably wouldve dictated significantly different campaigns and candidates.

The erasure of these voices is the fruit of decades of Republican scheming to win elections without winning majorities to hang on to power as the party of white grievance in an increasingly non-white country. That grave injustice got overlooked by the widespread arguments that the election results in key states were due entirely to the weakness of the Democratic candidate.

But Ari Berman of Mother Jones recently reported that in Wisconsin, where Trump was supposed to have won by less than 23,000 of the nearly three million votes cast, as many as 45,000 voters, particularly black voters, were prevented from casting a ballot by voter identification laws designed to disenfranchise them.

Berman cites another study suggesting that in total 200,000 more voters would have participated in the 2016 election had nothing changed since 2012 in how elections were run in Wisconsin, and of course these voters skewed more African American and more Democrat.

Even those who were able to vote may not have their votes counted. A few weeks after the election, journalist Gabriel Sherman reported that in Wisconsin, Clinton received 7% fewer votes in counties that relied on electronic-voting machines compared with counties that used optical scanners and paper ballots. Based on this statistical analysis, Clinton may have been denied as many as 30,000 votes, significantly more than Trumps margin of victory.

Further, in many swing states, including Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, there were extraordinary discrepancies between the exit polls and the vote tallies. Though its common to regard the latter as more reliable than the former, in other parts of the world, exit polls are treated as important verifications of the outcome.

As Alan Gilbert wrote in the Daily Beast: In Germany, Canada, and many other countries, an initial exit poll is released. And then paper ballots are counted. Where this procedure is used, there is no controversy. If the election is very close, the ballots can easily be recounted. Further, since 2000, the US State Department has used initial exit polling to test the fairness of elections in 14 transitional democracies.

Clinton would have won the election overwhelmingly had she won those states. Perhaps she did. Shortly after the election, Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman reported: In 24 of 28 states, unadjusted exit polls also showed Clinton with vote counts significantly higher than the final official outcome. The likelihood of this happening in an election that is not rigged are in the realm of virtual statistical impossibility.

Perhaps Trump did actually win against such enormous odds, but we dont actually know if he did or didnt.

Green Party candidate Jill Stein, at the behest of election experts troubled by these results, exercised her right to carry out a recount in three states where Trump won by a tiny margin, and a few weeks after the election raised more than $7m in small donations to carry out the project.

Pennsylvania blocked a recount by mounting outrageous obstacles to the process. Wisconsin prevented a hand recount that might have found machine errors; and the Michigan recount was stopped after enormous errors were detected. The Republican party appeared to be frantic to prevent us from finding out what really happened.

Republicans, with some notable exceptions, have also been eager to prevent any investigation of Russian intervention in the election and collusion between Trumps associates and the Putin regime.

The evidence for it was substantial and diverse before the election, some of it circumstantial the Trump team members with strong ties to and clandestine meetings with Russian officials, the odd things Trump himself, Roger Stone, and others said about Vladimir Putin, the Russian government, about WikiLeaks, and about the hacks of the DNC.

Trump has continued to try to obstruct any understanding of these ties, firing FBI chief James Comey, fretting over his inability to directly fire independent investigator Robert Mueller III, protesting anxiously and often that he is innocent, but clearly afraid to have that claim tested. And the evidence continues to mount.

Before the election, most reporting on Russian intervention addressed the hacking of the DNC and Podestas emails. Since then, we have learned that Russian actors contaminated the election in a plethora of ways.

The sheer volume now of the bots, the tweets, the trolls and fake profiles, the Facebook and Twitter ads and articles is astonishing, now coming to light as the congressional investigation has made the internet companies reveal their role in skewing the election. So is the reach.

Natasha Bertrand reported in Business Insider last month that more than 30,000 Russia-linked Twitter accounts sent out generated approximately 1.4 million automated, election-related tweets, which collectively received approximately 288 million impressions in the last legs of the election, while 126 million Facebook users were exposed to content generated by Russia-linked accounts between 2015 and 2017.

We have yet to come to terms with the ways that Facebook in particular sold users data to advertisers including the Trump campaign and Cambridge Analytica, allowing voters to be targeted in unprecedented ways, often without knowing that they were in effect receiving campaign literature or propaganda.

In June 2017, Bloomberg News issued a little-noticed report that voter databases in 39 states, far more than previously believed, had been hacked by Russian operatives before the 2016 election: In Illinois, investigators found evidence that cyber intruders tried to delete or alter voter data. The hackers accessed software designed to be used by poll workers on Election Day, and in at least one state accessed a campaign finance database. Did these incursions alter the outcome? We dont really know.

You dont have to factor in the Russian intervention or the Trump teams collusion to regard the election as fatally corrupted. But while the corruption of the voting system seems to have been an achievement of Republican strategists working for decades, the unprecedented role of a foreign government does give an entirely different basis to regard it as illegitimate. As we learn more about the latter, it behooves us not to forget the former, which is as grave a blow to the credibility of the election.

You dont have to like the Democratic party or Clinton to come to these conclusions. You just have to like free and fair elections and the right of the people to determine who governs them. And whether or not we can do anything about last years election, we can try to make sure we never again have one like it.

Read more: http://bit.ly/2nRVfsl

from ‘I’m like a secret assassin’: Poo Bear on writing for Justin Bieber, Skrillex and Sam Smith

#‘I’m like a secret assassin’: Poo Bear on writing for Justin Bieber #Skrillex and Sam Smith

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patriotsnet · 3 years ago

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How Did The Republicans Take Control Of Congress

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/how-did-the-republicans-take-control-of-congress/

How Did The Republicans Take Control Of Congress

What Is The New Balance Of Power In The House

House Democrats held onto their majority but lost seats to Republican challengers.

More than a dozen incumbent Democrats lost re-election bids, despite earlier projections they could gain up to 15 seats.

Incoming Biden Administration And Democratic House Wont Have To Deal With A Republican

Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff wave to supporters during a joint rally on Nov. 15 in Marietta, Ga.

Democratic challengers Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock have defeated Georgias two incumbent Republican U.S. senators in the states runoff elections, the Associated Press said Wednesday, in a development that gives their party effective control of the Senate.

Ossoff and Warnock were projected the winners over Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler by the AP following campaigns that drew massive spending and worldwide attention because the runoffs were set to determine the balance of power in Washington. The AP , at about 2 a.m. Eastern, then followed with the call for Ossoff over Perdue on Wednesday afternoon.

President-elect Joe Bidens incoming administration and the Democratic-run House of Representatives now wont face the same checks on their policy priorities that they would have faced with a Republican-controlled Senate, though analysts have said the slim Democratic majority in the chamber could mean more power for moderate senators from either party.

See:With sweep expected in Georgia Senate races, Democrats have high hopes for what Biden can do

It is looking like the Democratic campaign machine was more effective at driving turnout than the Republican one, said Eurasia Group analyst Jon Lieber in a note late Tuesday.

Warnock then made just before 8 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday.

Its Not All Bad News For Democrats

Gop Women Made Big Gains

While the majority of the Republican caucus will still be men come 2021, there will be far more Republican women in Congress than there were this year. So far, it looks like at least , surpassing the record of 25 from the 109th Congress. Thats thanks in part to the record number of non-incumbent Republican women 15 whove won House contests. And its also because of how well Republican women did in tight races. The table below shows the Republican women who ran in Democratic-held House districts that were at least potentially competitive, according to FiveThirtyEights forecast. As of this writing, seven of them have won.

GOP women have flipped several Democratic seats

Republican women running for potentially competitive Democratic-held House seats and the status of their race as of 4:30 p.m Eastern on Nov. 11

District D+22.1

Results are unofficial. Races are counted as projected only if the projection comes from ABC News. Excludes races in which the Republican candidate has either a less than 1 in 100 chance or greater than 99 in 100 chance of winning.

How Did Congress Take Control Of Reconstruction

In early 1866, Congressional Republicans, appalled by mass killing of ex-slaves and adoption of restrictive black codes, seized control of Reconstruction from President Johnson. The 14th Amendment also reduced representation in Congress of any southern state that deprived African Americans of the vote.

What The Midterms Mean For President Obama And 2016

Only one in three voters in exit polls said the country was on the right track, and one in five said the government in Washington could never be trusted to do whats right. Two-thirds said the economic system is unfair.

The Republican swing fit a historical pattern: The last three two-term presidents Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush all served their last two years with the opposing party controlling both houses of Congress.

And the party controlling the White House has lost seats in the House in the midterm election every time but twice since World War II.

In the Senate, Democrat Mark Pryor of Arkansas was ousted by Rep. Tom Cotton, and Mark Udall of Colorado was bounced by Rep. Cory Gardner. Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan lost her seat to Thom Tillis.

Democrat Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire held off a furious challenge by ex-Sen. Scott Brown.

Republicans Joni Ernst in Iowa, Steve Daines in Montana, Mike Rounds in South Dakota and Shelley Moore Capito in West Virginia all captured seats held by retiring Democrats.

Four Flips For Democrats One For Republicans

Going into the election, the Democrats held 47 seats in the U.S. Senate while the Republicans held 53.

The Democrats have succeeded in flipping four seats: in Colorado, where former Governor John Hickenlooper easily ousted incumbent Cory Gardner, in Arizona, where former astronaut Mark Kelly defeated incumbent Martha McSally, and in Georgia, where Raphael Warnock defeated incumbent Kelly Loeffler and Jon Ossoff defeated incumbent David Perdue.

The Republicans have wrested back one previously Democratic seat in , where one-term incumbent Doug Jones was emphatically denied a second term by Tommy Tuberville, a former college head football coach, most recently at the University of Cincinnati.

Outgoing freshman Sens. Jones and Gardner were both considered vulnerable, as each was elected with less than 50% of the vote in 2018.

Republican Thom Tilliss victory over Cal Cunningham in North Carolinaby less than 2 percentage points according to the North Carolina Secretary of States latest tallyis one of several close Senate races that were not called until after election night. In addition to the seats from Georgia, close races also include the victories of incumbent senators Gary Peters and Susan Collins , which were not called until Nov. 4.

Trump Lost Everything For The Republicans

In four years, Trump has led the Republican Party from unified control of Washington to the wilderness.

About the author: David A. Graham is a staff writer at The Atlantic.

If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed and we will deserve it, Senator Lindsey Graham .

The South Carolinians prediction didnt age well at first. Come January 2017, the Republican Party was in the catbird seat. With Trumps upset win over the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, it controlled the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. Trump would immediately be able to appoint a Supreme Court justice, too, giving GOP appointees an edge on the high court. Trump seemed to have cleared out the last vestiges of the Democrats New Deal coalition and built a new party that might withstand demographic changes expected to favor liberals. Graham, meanwhile, had a change of heart and became one of Trumps noisiest cheerleaders and closest allies.

Read: Its over

David A. Graham: Trump is the loser

Nonetheless, Trump insisted on making the Georgia Senate runoffs about him too. The effect was disastrous. Democrats, especially Black voters, turned out in astonishing numbers; suburban voters continued to reject Trump; and Republican turnout fell short, perhaps in part because the president had spent weeks telling his supporters that the states elections were rigged.

Read: Georgia sends a preacher to Washington

Republicans Can Win The Next Elections Through Gerrymandering Alone

Even if voting patterns remain the same, Republicans could still win more seats in Congress through redistricting

In Washington, the real insiders know that the true outrages are whats perfectly legal and that its simply a gaffe when someone accidentally blurts out something honest.

And so it barely made a ripple last week when a Texas congressman said aloud whats supposed to be kept to a backroom whisper: Republicans intend to retake the US House of Representatives in 2022 through gerrymandering.

We have redistricting coming up and the Republicans control most of that process in most of the states around the country, Representative Ronny Jackson told a conference of religious conservatives. That alone should get us the majority back.

Hes right. Republicans wont have to win more votes next year to claim the US House.

In fact, everyone could vote the exact same way for Congress next year as they did in 2020 when Democratic candidates nationwide won more than 4.7m votes than Republicans and narrowly held the chamber but under the new maps that will be in place, the Republican party would take control.

If Republicans aggressively maximize every advantage and crash through any of the usual guardrails and they have given every indication that they will theres little Democrats can do. And after a 2019 US supreme court decision declared partisan gerrymandering a non-justiciable political issue, the federal courts will be powerless as well.

Opinion:house Republicans Have Two Critical Advantages In 2022

Democrats hold the balance of power in Washington, D.C., but their margin is wafer-thin: Joe Biden is president, and the party controls both houses of Congress only very narrowly. Theyve already enacted $1.9 trillion of economic stimulus. Theyre with Republicans over the size of a bipartisan infrastructure bill. And theyre keen to pass a new voting rights law, although moderate Sen. Joe Manchin III might scuttle the effort.

Still, their time in the majority might be limited. We live in an era of bitter, closely divided elections. And in 2022, Republicans have two advantages that might soon give them the edge in the House.

The Republicans first advantage: The other party holds the White House. If Biden follows the path of other recent presidents, hell spend political capital, navigate crises and lose supporters in the process.

Barack Obama summarized this dynamic two years into his presidency: In the rush of activity, sometimes we lose track of the ways that we connected with folks that got us here in the first place. This is true of nearly every recent president. Ronald Reagan lost supporters as the 1981-82 recession tore through the economy. Obama alienated swing voters and energized tea party activists as he tried to advance the Affordable Care Act in Congress. And Bill Clinton lost voters when he attempted to pass a health-care reform bill of his own.

The GOPs second advantage: It draws the lines.

Analysis Shows Gop Can Take Control Of Congress By Gerrymandering Just 4 States

Sanders Says He Wont Let Centrists Shrink $3.5T Bill: I Already Negotiated

Republicans might be able to take control of Congress in next years midterm races without needing to win over a single additional voter.

As Democratic senators scramble to piece together a compromised version of the For the People Act, an electoral reform and voting rights bill, a new study finds that the GOP could gerrymander its way to victory in the 2022 midterms.

An analysis of Census data from a Democratic-aligned data firm called TargetSmart, first reported by Mother Jones, found that Republicans could pick up between six to 13 seats in the House of Representatives through redistricting electoral maps in just four southern states alone Georgia, Florida, North Carolina and Texas. If Republicans take five seats in the 2022 midterms, it would result in the GOP winning a majority of seats in the House, as Democrats currently have a five-seat lead in that legislative chamber.

Put another way, the GOP could win the midterm elections if voters behave the same way that they did in congressional elections in 2020, simply if Republican-run state legislatures are able to redraw maps in their own favor.

Babe Didrikson Zaharias Wins Final Lpga Tournament Of Her Career

What was not included? Details on how these bills would be executed and what they would cost.

“It probably did not matter that it was vague on costs, and that was even an advantage,” Teske says. “The goals were big picture, and ones that many voters could understand, without getting intoand bogged down bythe details of budget costs, specific programs that might go away, etc.”

Divided Government In The United States

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In the United States, divided government describes a situation in which one party controls the executive branch while another party controls one or both houses of the legislative branch.

Divided government is seen by different groups as a benefit or as an undesirable product of the model of governance used in the U.S. political system. Under said model, known as the separation of powers, the is divided into different branches. Each branch has separate and independent powers and areas of responsibility so that the powers of one branch are not in conflict with the powers associated with the others. However, the degree to which the president of the United States has control of often determines their political strength – such as the ability to pass sponsored legislation, ratify treaties, and have members and judges approved.

Early in the 19th century, divided government was rare, but since the 1970s it has become increasingly common.

When Obama Had Total Control Of Congress

The Reverend

Lies are easy to get away with if they are repeated often enough and given voice by many different people. Repeat a lie often enough and that lie often becomes conventional wisdom. Repeating a lie doesn’t change the lie into the truth, it changes the people hearing the repeated lie. They begin to accept the lie as truth. One huge example: ‘Iraq has WMD.’

Lies make it impossible for people to communicate with each other……lies make it impossible to, as the Villagers often talk about it, have a real “conversation.”

One particular lie, often stated by right-of-center advocates, is the statement….”if Barack Obama wanted to increase taxes on the rich, stop the wars, pass a budget…blah, blah…..he could have chosen to do so because he had “total control” of the House and Senate for two full years.”

Sometimes the “two full years” is omitted from the statement……but the lie is spread nevertheless, by the “total control of Congress” phrase.

Let’s clear that all up, shall we?

Starting January 2009, at the beginning of the 111th Congress, in the month that Barack Obama was inaugurated president, the House of Representatives was made up of 257 Democrats and 178 Republicans. There is no question that Democrats had total control in the House from 2009-2011.

But legislation does not become law without the Senate.

“Total control”, then, of the Senate requires 60 Democratic or Republican Senators.

*Chronology link

Senate Democrats And The Filibuster

Once again, Democrats fall short of the filibuster-proof 60-vote Senate majority by a whopping 10 votes.

The last time Democrats won a majority in the Senate was in 2008, when they rode Obamas coattails to victory. They had 59 votes in the Senate, far more than Democrats do now.

Obama was able to pull over a few Republican Senate votes in 2009 to pass the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act after the 2008 financial crisis. But on many other legislative priorities, McConnells Republican minority threw up a 60-vote barrier to passing most Democratic legislation.

McConnell admitted two years into the Obama era that he had to do everything he could to ensure the Obama presidency was one term. The former president wrote in his new memoir that the filibuster would prove to be the most chronic political headache of my presidency.

With President Obama, no matter how much outreach he tried to do with Congressional Republicans, there seemed to be absolutely no interest and no acceptance with what he was trying to do, Schiliro said. If congressional Republicans take that approach this time, it will be very difficult to get anything done.

That would break the Senate, Manchin told the . If you basically do away with the filibuster altogether for legislation, you wont have the Senate. Youre a glorified House. And I will not do that.

Democrats Lost A Long Hold On Congress

Democrats, meanwhile, characterized the plan as calling for radical changes and solutions that would make America worse off.

“They highlighted some of the more extreme elements and tried to show the damage it could cause to policies and institutions that had been in place for decades,” Teske says. “Some mocked it as the ‘Contract on America’not ‘with’as with a ‘hit job’ on the American people.”

And while Republicans won big at the ballot box that year, Teske says it was going to be a tough year for Democrats anyway, considering Clinton’s unpopularity, a weak economy and the history of midterms favoring the party not held by the president.

“But, the contract did show a coherent opposition plan that probably helped re-capture many of these seats,” he notes. “At the same time, pendulums do swing in American politics and after 60 years of pretty dominant Democratic control of both houses of Congress, there was probably going to be a change. But, it is probably fair to say that Gingrichs contract was in the right place, at the right time, for the Republican party.”

Which Congressional Action Was An Attempt By Radical Republicans To Advance Their Plan For Reconstruction

1867 Military Reconstruction ActThe 1867 Military Reconstruction Act, which encompassed the vision of Radical Republicans, set a new direction for Reconstruction in the South. Republicans saw this law, and three supplementary laws passed by Congress that year, called the Reconstruction Acts, as a way to deal with the disorder in the South.

READ: What is a lemming look like?

Current Leadership Of Key Offices

Eleven years of Democratic trifectas Seventeen years of Republican trifectasScroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year

Who Runs the States Report Background Main Page Part One: State Partisanship Partisanship Results Infographic Part Two: State Quality of Life Index Part Three: Overlaying Results Part 1 Executive Summary State Partisanship Analysis Partisan Control of Governorships Partisan Control of State Legislatures Partisan Control of State Senates Partisan Control of State Houses State Government Trifectas Overall Partisan Control: Bright, Medium and Soft States Changes of Partisan Domination over 22 years Year-to-Year Changes in State Partisan Control Trifectas and Presidential Election Patterns Appendix A Appendix B Part 2 Executive Summary State Quality of Life Index About the Index Overall Rankings Dramatic Changes from 1st Half to 2nd Half Individual Indicators Part 3 Comparing Partisanship and the State Quality of Life Index Rankings Description of the data Trends and correlations Key Values for Fifty-State Regressions State Reports

Republicans Set To Rebound Big In 2022 Midterms Unless

We are just 600 short days away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it is the perfect time to handicap the Republicans chances to win back the House, Senate and prepare a serious challenge to President Biden

Patrick Joseph ToomeyBlack women look to build upon gains in coming electionsWatch live: GOP senators present new infrastructure proposalSasse rebuked by Nebraska Republican Party over impeachment vote already have Democrats scrambling to flip those seats in much easier electoral terrain.

As I noted in The Hill last month, Republicans are on the hook to defend 20 of their seats in 2022, while Team Blue has just 14 seats to hold, all in states won by Joe Biden in 2020. Since March is a perfect month for sports analogies, a good defense provides for a strong offense when the status quo is Democrats retaining control of the upper chamber. While there is clearly a power in incumbency, FiveThirtyEight suggests that senate vacancies are actually more of a mixed bag. In election cycles since 1974, the party with the most Senate retirements has actually gained seats just as often as it has lost them. For every year like 2008, when more Republicans than Democrats retired and Republicans lost seats accordingly, theres a year like 2012, when a whopping seven Democrats retired yet the party picked up two Senate seats.

How these various Rs play out in the next few months will determine if the Rs are successful in 2022.

How Republicans Could Rig The Battle For Control Of Congress

The Atlantic

Democrats face a daunting future of severe Republican gerrymandering that could flip control of the House in 2022 and suppress diverse younger generations political influence for years to come, according to a new study released today. Those findings underscore the stakes in Democrats efforts to pass national legislation combatting such electoral manipulation.

The four big states to watch are Texas, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, where the GOP enjoys complete control over the redistricting process, says Michael Li, a senior counsel at the Brennan Center for Justice and the author of the new report on how congressional redistricting could unfold following the 2020 census. Those four states, which are seat-rich and where Republicans control the process, could decide who controls the next Congress, he told me.

Over the longer term, Republican states could impose gerrymanders that prevent the nations growing nonwhite population from building political power commensurate with its numberseven though voters of color accounted for about four in five newly eligible voters in the past decade, the study found.

When Senate Democrats like Joe Manchin, Kyrsten Sinema, and Feinstein oppose getting rid of the filibuster, Pfeiffer added, they are deciding to make it more likely that their time in the majority is ever so brief.

The Midterms Introduced Extreme Divisive Politics

As for the contract’s lasting impact? Most of its ideas and proposals did not pass Congress, or were vetoed by Clinton, and, according to Teske, the ones that did pass were not radical departures and instead relatively minor in scope. But it did put Republicans back in power in Congress, which they’ve largely held onto in the years since.

“The Gingrich approach of extreme right ideas, combined with a scorched-earth personal level of politics in attacking opponentslater seen in Clintons investigations and impeachmenthas also had a major impact on American politics” he says. “It helped bring a much more ‘win at all costs’ mentality, and a divisiveness that persists today.”

Opinion:the House Looks Like A Gop Lock In 2022 But The Senate Will Be Much Harder

Redistricting will take place in almost every congressional district in the next 18 months. The party of first-term presidents usually loses seats in midterms following their inauguration President Barack Obamas Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010 and President Donald Trumps Republicans lost 40 in 2018 but the redistricting process throws a wrench into the gears of prediction models.

President George W. Bush saw his party add nine seats in the House in 2002. Many think this was a consequence of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America nearly 14 months earlier, but the GOP, through Republican-led state legislatures, controlled most of the redistricting in the two years before the vote, and thus gerrymandering provided a political benefit. Republicans will also have a firm grip on redistricting ahead of the 2022 midterms.

The Brennan Center has that the GOP will enjoy complete control of drawing new boundaries for 181 congressional districts, compared with a maximum of 74 for Democrats, though the final numbers could fluctuate once the pandemic-delayed census is completed. Gerrymandering for political advantage has its critics, but both parties engage in it whenever they get the opportunity. In 2022, Republicans just have much better prospects. Democrats will draw districts in Illinois and Massachusetts to protect Democrats, while in Republican-controlled states such as Florida, Ohio and Texas, the GOP will bring the redistricting hammer down on Democrats.

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Can Republicans Take Back The House

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/can-republicans-take-back-the-house/

Can Republicans Take Back The House

The Gop Has Yet To Land A Single Top Recruit To Run For The Senate Anywhere In The Country

Representative Kevin McCarthy discusses if Republicans can take back the House in 2020

The surest way that Republicans can stop whatever legislative agenda President Biden has in mind after the 2022 midterm elections is to win a majority in the US Senate.

Even more than the House, a simple majority in the Senate could let Republicans gum up everything from gun control legislation to Supreme Court nominations.

On paper, it seems easy enough. Republicans need to win just a single seat in order to flip the 50-50 Senate and possibilities for doing so are all over the map. Given that midterm elections often benefit the party out of power, and Democrats control two out of three levers of the federal government, Republicans wouldnât be overly optimistic in assuming Mitch McConnell might soon rule the Senate again.

But here is the thing about the GOPâs chances: At this early stage, they are having problems getting good candidates to sign up. And while the historical trends look good for Republicans you canât win something with nothing.

Republicans have yet to land a single top recruit to run for the Senate anywhere in the country â even in places where they have an opportunity to flip a seat â and a good candidate could make all the difference.

In Nevada, Republicans are pinning their hopes on getting former state attorney general Adam Laxalt in the race to challenge Masto, who won in 2016 by just 3 percentage points. So far, Laxalt has not announced plans to run and he comes with baggage: he lost a bid for governor in 2018.

House Republicans Voice Optimism On Winning Back The House Following Special Election Victories

Coming on the heels of two special election wins, House Republicans are feeling a new sense of optimism about their odds of taking back control of the lower chamber, with National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom EmmerThomas Earl EmmerCrypto industry seeks to build momentum after losing Senate fightTrump-backed Mike Carey wins GOP primary in Ohio special electionJuan Williams: Biden’s child tax credit is a game-changerMORE saying he feels the House is more than just in play.;

While independent political forecasters have largely projected that Republicans face a steep uphill climb to win back the majority citing the number of retirements, the number of seats that flipped in the midterms and the fact that Democrats have a cash advantage top GOP lawmakers say Rep. Mike Garcia’s victory over Democrat Christy Smith in a competitive swing district indicates political analysts may be underestimating the partys momentum.;

The Garcia election in Los Angeles I think was a wake-up call to all the skeptics out there that in the middle of all of these difficult challenges, a Republican just flipped a seat in the suburbs of L.A., and that hasnt been done in 22 years, House Minority Whip Steve ScaliseStephen Joseph ScaliseLouisiana delegation asks for additional relief funding after IdaFEMA has funds to cover disasters for nowWatch live: Scalise holds news conference on Afghanistan MORE told The Hill.;

Al Weaver contributed.

Gerrymandering Texas Could Help Republicans Take Back The House In 2022

HOUSTON Fort Bend County was a sleepy suburban outpost of Houston when KP George arrived in the late 1990s, dominated by conservative politics and represented in Congress by Republican Party star Tom DeLay.

Twenty years later, the areas population has more than doubled in size, driven by fast-growing Asian, Latino and Black communities that in 2019 helped elect George an immigrant from southern India as Fort Bends first non-white county judge.

The wave of left-leaning voters that elevated George and other Democrats to local office in recent years may also help the area land a new congressional district. Texas gained two House seats in the 2020 U.S. Census, driven by a population boom in the Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan regions, among other parts of the state.

But the Republican-controlled state legislature will be in charge of drawing the new districts, leaving Democrats on the sidelines, worried they may not benefit from the regions changing demographics.

You feel like youre not being counted, George said. My county is benefitting from people like me. But when it comes to the seat at the table , we dont have it.

Redistricting is a byzantine process that plays out behind closed doors, but the stakes are high. New congressional and state legislative lines will remain in place for the next decade, giving the parties that benefit most from redistricting considerable clout in policymaking and upcoming elections.

Also Check: Who Won The House Republicans Or Democrats

Democrats And Republicans Vote Straight In Line With Their Parties

Every Republican voted no Wednesday as the Democratic-led U.S. House passed the $1.9 trillion legislation. No Senate Republican voted for the bill when it;came before that chamber;Saturday.

During weeks of debate,;Republicans said the bulk of the spending would go;to an array of items unrelated to COVID-19 from Amtrak railroad service to arts and humanities programs.

Former President Donald Trump issued a short statement after the bill’s passage Wednesday, taking credit for development of COVID-19 vaccines in what could be a glimpse into Republican talking points.;

If I wasnt President, you wouldnt be getting that beautiful shot for 5 years, at best, and probably wouldnt be getting it at all. I hope everyone remembers! Trump said.

The bill; to Americans, extends unemployment benefits, addresses child poverty and health care programs;and speeds up programs to supply COVID-19 vaccinations and school reopenings; all items Democrats frequently tout.

Chris Taylor, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said “the;American people will remember that House Republicans voted against cutting childhood poverty in half” and “getting stimulus checks into the hands of struggling Americans,” among;other benefits.

“House Republicans left American families out to dry,” he said. “The people won’t forget that.”;

Its Not All Bad News For Democrats

Of the 233 seats that Democrats held coming into the election,2 186 of them were in districts that were predominantly or partly suburban in nature, according to density categorizations by Bloombergs CityLab. Thus far, Democrats have lost seven of those seats, but they captured one GOP-held suburban seat around Atlanta. And thanks to redistricting, theyve also won two formerly Republican seats around Greensboro and Raleigh in North Carolina, which reflect the partys strength in more populous areas.

Because of their relative success in the suburbs, Democrats kept many seats in places President Trump won in 2016. Coming into the election, Democrats held 30 seats in districts Trump carried in 2016, and they wouldve lost their majority if theyd lost more than half of them . But theyve won 18 of them so far and picked up one from the GOP . In fact, more than half of Republicans gains have come in seats representing places that Trump won by a pretty sizable margin in 2016. Well have to wait a bit before data can tell us how congressional districts voted in 2020,3 but for now it seems many Republican gains were made by picking off the lowest-hanging fruit.

Don’t Miss: What Is The Principle Of Republicanism

The Justice Department Puts States On Notice About Election Audits And Voting Changes

“If they’re going to try to rely on rigging this game, because they don’t have a plan for the future and they can’t talk to the voters about their ideas and their vision, well, I think that makes me proud to be a Democrat.”

Maloney also posits that GOP turnout will be depressed in an election that doesn’t feature former President Donald Trump himself.

“There’s no evidence that this toxic Trump message will motivate voters without Trump on the ballot,” he says. “If the other side is making one big mistake, I think that might be it, which is a doubling down on this toxic Trump message of division and anger and racism and yet there’s no evidence they can pull out voters with the message without the messenger.”

He points to Texas Republican Jake Ellzey as a recent example. Ellzey was sworn in to the House on Friday, days after winning a special election that saw him defeat a Trump-backed candidate.

Maloney underscores: “It seems like the Trump endorsement’s not what it used to be.”

Here are more highlights from his conversation with NPR’s Susan Davis.

On polarization in Congress:

On the Republican Party:

On his own reelection in 2022:

I Do Not Buy That A Social Media Ban Hurts Trumps 2024 Aspirations: Nate Silver

What do we make of that playbook headed into 2022? Likewise, as the party in charge, what are Democrats planning for?

With that being said, the GOPs strategies could still gin up turnout among its base, in particular, but its hard to separate that from general dissatisfaction with Biden.

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Rising Violent Crime Is Likely To Present A Political Challenge For Democrats In 2022

But there are roadblocks to fully enacting Democrats’ agenda. Their thin majorities in both chambers of Congress mean nearly all Democrats have to get on board with every agenda item in order to push through major legislative priorities. And without adjusting or eliminating the legislative filibuster in the Senate, Democrats need 10 Republicans to join them for various legislation a near-impossible task.

Will 2022 Be A Good Year For Republicans

Can the GOP take back the House? Kevin McCarthy weighs in

A FiveThirtyEight Chat

Welcome to FiveThirtyEights politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarah : Were still more than a year away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it will be a while before we should take those general election polls too seriously. But with a number of elections underway in 2021, not to mention a number of special elections, its worth kicking off the conversation around what we do and dont know about Republicans and Democrats odds headed into the midterms.

Lets start big picture. The longstanding conventional wisdom is that midterm elections generally go well for the party thats not in the White House. Case in point: Since 1946, the presidents party has lost, on average, 27 House seats.

What are our initial thoughts? Is the starting assumption that Republicans should have a good year in 2022?

alex : Yes, and heres why: 2022 will be the first federal election after the House map are redrawn. And because Democrats fell short of their 2020 expectations in state legislative races, Republicans have the opportunity to redraw congressional maps that are much more clearly in their favor. On top of that, Republicans are already campaigning on the cost and magnitude of President Bidens policy plans to inspire a backlash from voters.

geoffrey.skelley :Simply put, as that chart above shows, the expectation is that Democrats, as the party in the White House, will lose seats in the House.;

nrakich : What they said!

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Possible 2010 Or 2014 Midterm Repeat

Big bets on policy also don’t necessarily pay off at the ballot box, a lesson Democrats learned a decade ago when they passed the Affordable Care Act. President Barack Obama’s domestic policy achievement also helped decimate congressional Democratic majorities in the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections.

It’s just one reason why Republicans feel good about their chances in 2022, along with structural advantages like the redistricting process, where House districts are redrawn every decade to reflect population changes. Republicans control the process in more states and are better positioned to gain seats.

“This deck is already stacked, because they’ve been gerrymandering these districts,” Maloney says. “And now they’re trying to do even more of it and add to that with these Jim Crow-style voter suppression laws throughout the country.”

He maintains that efforts among Republican-led state legislatures to enact more voting restrictions show the party has a losing policy hand for the midterm elections.

Jim Jordan: Biden Has Not Done One Thing Right Gop Will Take Back House In 2022

OPINION: This article contains commentary which reflects the authors opinion

Ohio GOP Rep. Jim Jordan says that Joe Biden has not done one thing right and that he thinks Bidens incompetence will cost Democrats next year.

During an interview on FNCs FOX News Primetime, Jordan said Republicans will take back control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections.Guest host Tammy Bruce said, What is your message to the American people as we deal with the unfolding disaster of the Biden administration?Jorden said, Well, yeah, defend anyone who gets attacked. These people running for school board because they

Read the rest of this story here: conservativebrief.com

With that said, our content may be reproduced and distributed as long as it has a link to the original source and the author is credited prominently. We dont mind you using our content as long as you help out by giving us credit with a prominent link. If you feel like giving us a tip for the content, we will not object!

JD Rucker EIC

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Republicans Winning Money Race As They Seek To Take Over House In 2022

By Alex Rogers and Manu Raju, CNN

The National Republican Congressional Committee announced Wednesday that it had raised $45.4 million in the second quarter of 2021, the most it has ever raised in three months of a non-election year, as Republicans seek to take over the House in 2022.

This story has been updated with additional developments Wednesday.

Republicans Are Well Positioned To Take The House In 2022

Recommended Reading: Who Was The Leader Of The Radical Republicans

Top Republicans Think Taking Back House And Senate Would Force Biden To Center

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell says if Republicans can win back control of Congress in the 2022 midterms, it would force President Joe Biden into a political corner.

Speaking at an event in his home state of Kentucky, McConnell says Americans will have a big decision to make come midterms when control of the House and Senate will be up for grabs.

Do they really want a moderate administration or not? If the House and Senate were to return to Republican hands that doesnt mean nothing will get done, McConnell said.

What I want you to know is if I become majority leader again its not for stopping everything. Its for stopping the worst. Its for stopping things that fundamentally push the country into a direction that at least my party feels is not a good idea for the country. I could make sure Biden makes his promise to be a moderate, he added.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell suggested Monday that he would block a Supreme Court nominee in 2024 if Republicans regain control of the Senate after the 2022 midterm elections.

— USA TODAY

One of the things McConnell would be guaranteed to block from Biden would be a Supreme Court nomination, much like he did with former President Barack Obama and his last nominee, Merrick Garland.;

The Democrats hold a slim lead of nine seats in the House with all 435 seats up for grabs.

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How Many Seats Did Republicans Gain In The House

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How Many Seats Did Republicans Gain In The House

What To Watch For

Following the Census count, all states are tasked with drawing new legislative district maps that reflect the population shifts. Most states leave that responsibility up to the legislatures, though more states are now handing the process off to an independent commission. Because of Republicans dominance in statewide elections, they control the redistricting process in more states than Democrats do. Republicans are in charge of line-drawing for 187 congressional seats, while Democrats control just 87, according to the Cook Political Report. Population growth in states such as Texas, Florida and North Carolina, means the GOP is to increase its grip on power. Some House members who represent districts in states that lost seatssuch as West Virginiawill be forced to retire or try and win in a new district running against another incumbent in their state.

Democrats Flip 39 Seats In Latest Tally As Losing Gop Rep Mia Love Tears Into Republicans Over Treatment Of Minorities

Democrats made a net gain of 39 House seats in this year’s midterm elections, NBC News has concluded, after Democrat Ben McAdams defeated GOP Rep. Mia Love in Utah’s 4th Congressional District.

That race was NBC News’ lone remaining uncalled contest.

The gains that propelled Democrats to retake the majority in the House come on the back of the largest margin of victory, in terms of total votes, that either party has seen in a midterm election. Democrats held the prior record for vote margin, which came in 1974 with the backdrop of the Watergate scandal.

Though President Donald Trump’s first midterm election was not particularly kind to him, it is common for the party not in control of the White House to make significant gains in that initial midterm. On the House side, President Barack Obama saw Republicans make a 63-seat net gain in 2010, while President Bill Clinton watched as the GOP picked up 54 seats in 1994.

Its Not All Bad News For Democrats

Trump Shames Republicans Who Lost Midterms Did Not ’embrace’ His Support

“The president’s behavior towards me made me wonder, what did he have to gain by saying such a thing about a fellow Republican?” Love said. “It was not really about asking him to do more, was it? Or was it something else? Well, Mr. President, we’ll have to chat about that. However, this gave me a clear vision of his world as it is no real relationships, just convenient transactions. That is an insufficient way to implement sincere service and policy.”

Love then tore into Republicans for their treatment of minority voters before vigorously defending conservative policies as more beneficial to all Americans.

“Because Republicans never take minority communities into their home and citizens into their home and into their hearts, they stay with Democrats and bureaucrats in Washington because they do take them home or at least make them feel like they have a home,” Love said. “I’ve seen the cost of conservatives for not truly taking people into their hearts.”

“Democrats saw newly elected black members and women into Congress this election,” she continued. “This is a matter of fact that Republicans lost in this regard. However, minority communities need to ask themselves this question also: At what cost? What is the cost of staying with the Democrat Party that perpetually delivers exactly what you need to stay exactly where you are?”

This story has been updated to reflect NBC’s retraction of its call for the Republican in California’s 21st congressional district.

Why Did The Republicans Perform So Well In The Us Congressional Elections

Three factors played a part: preconceptions, policyand polls.

One of the manyironies of Republican support forPresident Donald Trumps effortstochallenge the outcome of the 2020 election is that the Republican Party, save the president himself, actually did very well in it. Unless the Democrats manage to win both runoffs in the special election early in January, Republicans will keep the Senate. While Democrats held on to their majority in the House, the margin of that majority has shrunk, leaving the party to worryabout 2022 already.

This was unexpected:Joe Biden was polling ahead, yes, but so were Democrats in many congressional races. Yetrelative Republican success followed. The Republican Senator Susan Collins, who was expected to lose her Maine seat, not only won, but won quite comfortably. In Iowa, almost all polls besides the states own Des Moines Registershowed a tight presidential race. In fact, not only did Trump win the state, but the Republican Senator Joni Ernsther seat and the Democratic Representative Abby Finkenauer lost hers.

All of which raises the question: what went right for Republicansand wrong for Democrats?

There are three possible answers: preconceptions, policy and polls.

Theres a third possibility,which is that polls were wide off the mark about support for Trump, and for the Republicans more generally.

Watch Georgia North Carolina Florida And Arizona

Nathan L. Gonzales

ANALYSIS More than 16 months before Election Day, new House district lines havent even been drawn, and yet the fight for Congress is likely to hinge on the outcomes in four critical states.

On a basic level, every state matters in the Senate, considering Republicans need to gain just a single seat to get to the majority. Each significant recruitment development would instantly affect the handicapping of a race and the fight for control. But there are other states less dependent on a single candidate.

Every seat also matters in the House, where Republicans need a net gain of five seats for a majority a paltry number in a body of 435 members and in the face of the midterm history, which favors the party out of the White House. And some states, such as Texas, are of particular importance to one of the chambers. But a handful of states are hosting competitive races that will affect control of both the House and the Senate.

Incumbents Who Sought Other Offices

U.S. House members who ran for President

1 Democratic member of the U.S. House

Running for president, 2020

U.S. House members who sought a seat in the U.S. Senate

2 Democratic members of the U.S. House

3 Republican members of the U.S. House

Running for Senate, 2020

U.S. House members who ran for governor

1 Republican member of the U.S. House

Running for governor, 2020

U.S. House members who ran for another office

2 Republican members of the U.S. House

1 Democratic member of the U.S. House

Running for another office, 2020 Name No

An Incoming Class Of History

Several of the newly elected state representatives are making history.

The Republican Madison Cawthorn, 25, who beat the Democrat Moe Davis to represent North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, will become the youngest member of Congress in modern history.

The Democrat Cori Bush is set to become the first Black congresswoman from Missouri after winning in the state’s 1st Congressional District.

The Democrats Mondaire Jones and Ritchie Torres will also be the first openly gay Black men to serve in Congress, after winning in New York’s 17th and 15th districts respectively.

Currently, there are just 13 voting female Republican representatives in the House and 11 female Republican incumbents who ran for reelection in 2020.

Why Did House Democrats Underperform Compared To Joe Biden

The results of the 2020 elections pose several puzzles, one of which is the gap between Joe Bidens handsome victory in the presidential race and the Democrats disappointing performance in the House of Representatives. Biden enjoyed an edge of 7.1 million votes over President Trump, while the Democrats suffered a loss of 13 seats in the House, reducing their margin from 36 to just 10.

Turnout in the 2018 mid-term election reached its highest level in more than a century. Democrats were fervently opposed to the Trump administration and turned out in droves. Compared to its performance in 2016, the partys total House vote fell by only 2%. Without Donald Trump at the head of the ticket, Republican voters were much less enthusiastic, and the total House vote for Republican candidates fell by nearly 20% from 2016. Democratic candidates received almost 10 million more votes than Republican candidates, a margin of 8.6%, the highest ever for a party that was previously in the minority. It was, in short, a spectacular year for House Democrats.

To understand the difference this Democratic disadvantage can make, compare the 2020 presidential and House results in five critical swing states.

Table 1: Presidential versus House results

Arizona

How Republicans Pulled Off A Big Upset And Nearly Took Back The House

Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN

There seemed to be one safe bet when it came to the 2020 election results: Democrats would easily hold on to their majority in the House of Representatives. Not only that, but the conventional wisdom held that Democrats would pick up more than the 235 seats they won in the 2018 midterm elections.

will have a majority has projectedJack Kersting FiveThirtyEight clockedThe Economist modelfinal polling averages at the Crystal Ballwhat polls suggestedCook Political ReportInside Electionsare leading

Incumbents Defeated In Primary Elections

The following table lists incumbents defeated in 2020 House primary elections or conventions.

Incumbents defeated in primaries

See also: Incumbents defeated in 2018 congressional elections

In the 2018 midterm elections, 378 U.S. House incumbents ran for re-election. This was the lowest number of U.S. House incumbents seeking re-election since 1992.

Thirty-four incumbents9 percentlost their re-election bids. That included two Democrats and 32 Republicans. This was the highest percentage of incumbents defeated since 2012, when 10.2 percent were not re-elected.

The following data for congressional re-election rates from 2000 to 2016 was reported in Vital Statistics, a joint research project of the Brookings Institution and the American Enterprise Institute. Find the original datasets and methodology . Data for the 2018 election came from .

Defeated U.S. House incumbents by party, 2000-2018 Year

U.S. House incumbents retired, defeated, or reelected, 2000-2018 Year Percentage of those seeking reelection 2018 97.8

Popular Vote By Party And State

The following table displays the total number of votes received and the number of seats won by party for each state in the 2016 U.S. House elections. It also compares the percentage of the total vote received by each party to the percentage of seats in the state won by each party. Some interesting facts:

Republican candidates received 49.13% of total votes cast in 2016 and won 55.4% of U.S. House seats. Comparatively, Democratic candidates received 48.03% of votes and won 44.6% of races. Third-party and write-in candidates received 2.56% of votes.

Third-party candidates received the highest percentage of votes in Arkansas with 18.42% of votes cast. Comparatively, Democratic candidates only received 10.42% of the total votes cast in Arkansas. This is likely due to the fact that the Democratic Party only fielded a general election candidate in one of the state’s four House races.

There were two states in which the party that received the most total votes won a minority of seats, Virginia and Wisconsin. In Virginia, Democratic candidates received 49.17% of votes but only won 36.36% of seats , while Republican candidates received 48.74% of votes and won 63.64% of seats . In Wisconsin, Democratic candidates received 49.85% of votes but won 37.5% of seats , while Republican candidates received 45.89% of votes and won 62.5% of seats .

United States House Votes by Party and State State

R Favored

Whocontrols State Legislaturesin States With Changes

Thirteen states were affected by the 2020 Census’ shift in congressional seats.

States are given the task of redrawing districts whenthey gainor loseseats.

Michael Li, senior counsel for the non-partisan Brennan Center for Justice’s Democracy Program,saidthe country could be poised for a battle overgerrymandering, the practice of redrawing district lines to favor one party over the other or to suppress the vote of communities of color.

In some states, the process is fairer than others, he said, because they are not controlled by just one political party or they have instituted an independent redistricting committee, such as in Michigan. But for other states, the party in power stands to control the map.

Just How Bad Was The 2018 Election For House Republicans

Chris Cillizza

On Thursday, Democrat Jared Golden beat Maine Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin, marking the 33rd seat pickup for Democrats in the 2018 election.

So did he? As compared to history?

Not really, is the answer.

But more broadly, the 33 seat loss by Republicans in 2018 places this election firmly in the upper echelon of House-seat losses by a presidents party in modern midterms.

Read Thursdays full edition of The Point newsletter, and to get future editions delivered to your inbox.

Rising Violent Crime Is Likely To Present A Political Challenge For Democrats In 2022

Betting On Major Domestic Policy Programs

“We’re making a bet on substance,” Maloney says, before adding a colorful adage: “What’s the old saying any jackass can kick down a barn, it takes a carpenter to build one. It’s harder to build it than to kick it down. And so we’re the party that’s going to build the future.”

That future includes proposals to combat climate change; overhaul immigration laws; massively invest in traditional infrastructure like roads, bridges and expanded access to broadband, along with investments in affordable child care and early childhood education; and provide an expanded child tax credit with payments that top out at $3,600 a year per child.

Tens of millions of American families are already starting to receive those direct cash payments.

“That’s a huge thing for a family trying to pay for the kids’ basketball shoes or keep food in the fridge till Saturday when it’s been running out on Thursday,” Maloney says.

The monthly credit is scheduled to last one year, but some Democrats have already discussed making it permanent.

The influx of government aid is projected to cut poverty nearly in half in 2021, according to a new analysis from The Urban Institute first reported in The New York Times.

“No Democratic majority, no Democratic president, has made this much progress in a long time,” Maloney says.

The Number Of People Each House Member Represents Will Change

The number of residents represented by each House member will mostly growin 2022, though it will decrease per representative in some states.

Delaware’s sole House district, currently held by Democratic Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, will be the largest in terms of population.

Republicans Are Expected To Gain Seats In Redrawn 2022 Congressional Maps But Democrats Could Be Worse Off

House seats broken down by final redistricting authority :

– Republican: 187

Dave Wasserman April 26, 2021